中文摘要：

运用动态因子分析方法对我国35个大中城市的房地产发展水平进行综合评价。在此基础上，选取发展水平较高的10个城市，利用其2007年7月-2014年9月新建商品住宅销售价格指数的月度数据，构建DCC-MVGARCH模型，研究这段时期内我国城市房价波动之间的溢出效应。结果发现，绝大多数城市房价波动间有着显著的正相关性，并且调控政策的出台在一定程度上降低了它们之间的动态相关系数。进一步的研究表明，我国城市房价波动之间存在一定的溢出效应，房价波动主要由房地产发展水平较高的地区传递至发展水平较低的地区。

英文摘要：

After having done the comprehensive evaluation of the real estate developing levels of 35 large and me- dium-sized cities in China by means of dynamic factor analysis, 10 cities with the higher levels are selected to study the spillover effect of these cities＇ house price fluctuation by referring to the monthly data of new commodi- ty house price index from July 2007 to September 2014 and building a DCC-MVGARCH model. The results show that it has a significant positive correlation between the most of the cities＇ house price fluctuations, and reg- ulation policies could reduce the dynamic correlation coefficients of them to a certain extent. Further studies show that there is some spillover effect existed between house price fluctuations of the cities of China, and the fluctuations pass on mainly from the areas with high levels of development of the real estate to less developed ar- eas.