中文摘要：

采用VAR和集成预测模型,以石油加工、炼焦和核燃料加工业为例,分析了中国石化产业产能过剩的影响因素,并对产能利用率做出了预测。结果表明：中国石化产业产能过剩是各种因素共同作用的结果,固定资产投资过量、产业集聚现象是化工产业产能过剩的两个主要因素,前者表现为体制性产能过剩,后者表现为结构性产能过剩;一般而论,化工产业生产对市场的依存度相对较低,过旺的市场需求可能会导致供给侧增加产能,继而引发产能过剩;短期内,我国石化产业可能会呈现出持续的产能过剩趋势,应引起有关方面的重视。

英文摘要：

Using vector autoregressive model and integrated forecasting model were constructed, taking oil processing, coking ＆ nuclear fuel pro- cessing as an example, analyzed the influence factors of China＇s petrochemical industry overcapacity, and the capacity utilization rate was predicted. The results showed that overcapacity in the Chinese petrochemical industry was the result of interaction of various factors, the fixed asset investment excessive and the phenomenon of industrial agglomeration were the two main factors of ovcrcapacity in the chemical industry, the former showed system capacity in excess, the latter was for the excess capacity structural. The chemical industry production of market dependence degree was low, excess de- mand in the market may cause an increase in the supply side capacity, then lead to excess production capacity. In the short term, China＇s petrochemi- cal industry may appear to be persistent over capacity surplus trend.