中文摘要：

近年来,台湾入闽地年旅游人次数呈上升趋势,而合理的旅游人次数预测能够为政府相关部门以及旅游企业的决策提供一定的数据参考。本文以2007-2014年台湾同胞入闽地旅游年人次数为样本,采用残差修正的GM（1,1）模型对未来五年间台湾入闽地区旅游人次数进行了预测。并通过残差检验、相关度检验及后验检验等检验显示,修正GM（1,1）模型是合格的,预测结果具有合理性。

英文摘要：

In recent years,the number of tourists from Taiwan to Fujian Province is on the rise. The prediction of reasonable number of tourists will provide a certain reference data for the relevant government departments and tourism enterprises. The residual error modified GM（ 1,1） Model is used to predict the number of Taiwan people who come to travel in Fujian in the next five years,based on the sample data of Taiwan Tourists from 2007 to 2014.The modified model is strictly qualified,and the results are reasonable through residual test,correlation test and posterior inspection.