以福建省物流业对进出12贸易的影响为研究对象。在分析福建省物流业和进出口贸易发展现状的基础上,选取福建省1987—2013年的相关数据进行协整分析、格兰杰因果关系检验,利用误差修正模型对福建省物流业与进出口贸易之间的关系进行分析。结果表明:福建省物流业的发展无论是在短期还是在长期,都对进出口贸易产生了显著的促进作用,并且长期影响程度大于短期影响程度。在此基础上,从宏观层面和微观层面着手提出相应的对策建议,以通过提高福建省物流业发展水平来进一步带动对外贸易的发展。
Empirical analysis has been conducted on the influence of logistics to import and export trade in Fujian. Based on current status analysis, the related data from 1987 to 2013 are put into co-integration analysis, Granger causality test and error correction model to make clear the relationship between logistics and import-export trade in Fujian Province. In the short term and long term, an increase in logistics level has a positive effect on import and export trade growth. The influence of long term is more remarkable than that of short term. Accordingly the countermeasures are proposed to improve logistics driving import and export trade develop- ment in Fujian Province.