中文摘要：

目的建立基于广义偏线性模型（generalized partial linear model,GPLM）的,包括危险因素和中医证候要素内容的绝经后骨质疏松症（postmenopausal osteoporosis,PMOP）风险判别模型。方法在获取1740例社区PMOP高危人群危险因素及证候问卷调查数据基础上,筛选出与PMOP发病相关的重要危险因素和中医症状为协变量,以骨密度定性诊断为结局变量,建立基于GPLM的PMOP判别模型。结果 GPLM模型线性部分参数估计提示：是否绝经、体重指数、下肢抽筋、下肢骨痛、绝经年限（线性效应）具有统计意义（P〈0.05）;模型非线性部分参数估计提示：绝经年限（非线性效应）具有统计意义（P〈0.05）。与logistic回归模型相比,拟合GPLM模型时加入了＂绝经年限＂的非线性效应,其AUC值为0.7971,具有统计学意义（χ2=21.9162,P〈0.001）。结论绝经年限与PMOP发病之间存在非线性效应。将西医危险因素和中医症状相结合,建立基于GPLM的PMOP判别模型,反映病证结合特点,与logistic回归模型相比,具有更好的判别准确性。

英文摘要：

Objective To establish a discriminant model for PMOP with risk factors and TCM symdrome essential factors based on generalized partial linear model（GPLM）.Methods Questionnaire survey data was collected on the risk factors and TCM syndromes of 1740 community population with high risk of PMOP.PMOP risk factors and TCM symptoms were selected out as the covariates,the BMD qualitative diagnosis as outcome variable,and a PMOP discriminant model was established applying the GPLM method.Results The linear parameter estimation of the GPLM model indicated that whether menopause,body mass index,lower limb cramps,lower limb pains and duration of menopause（linear effect） had statistical significance（P0.05）,and the nonlinear parameter estimation of the model indicated that duration of menopause（nonlinear effect） had statistical difference（P0.05）.The AUC value of GPLM was 0.7971 with the nonlinear effect of duration of menopause.The value was 21.9162,P0.001.Conclusion The nonlinear effect between duration of menopause and PMOP was found.GPLM had more accurate discriminative characteristics,being compared with linear logistic regression models.