中文摘要：

负荷变动规律的机理分析及其概率建模是电网可靠性与负荷之间互动影响研究的关键。计及节点负荷变化的不确定性和相关性,开展电网可靠性量化评估,可深度揭示电网可靠性与负荷之间的耦合关系,但现有研究忽略了节点与系统负荷之间在物理机理上的关联本质,如＂直接加和＂特性。基于此提出电网可靠性评估的非参数解集负荷模型,该模型在节点负荷的不确定性和相关性规律描述上避开了节点负荷间相依结构（线性或非线性相关）以及系统负荷与节点负荷概率密度函数形式（正态或非正态）的假定,保持了节点负荷与系统负荷间的＂直接加和＂特性,可有效实现从全局系统负荷到局部节点负荷的解集,为电网可靠性评估等概率仿真模型提供了实用的负荷变动规律模型。通过对改进的RBTS和IEEE-RTS79可靠性测试系统的评估分析,验证了该模型的正确性和有效性。

英文摘要：

Probabilistic load modeling is an effective way to incorporate the variation and correlation of bus loads in power system reliability evaluation. However, existing probabilistic load models are not always accurate because they do not consider the additive correlation between system load and bus loads. The additive correlation means that system load equals to the sum of all bus loads. This paper proposed a nonparametric disaggregation load model for power system reliability evaluation. The proposed model does not need any assumption of the probability distribution for system load and bus loads, or the correlation form between bus loads. Considering the additive correlation between system load and bus loads, the proposed load model can successively disaggregate system load to individual bus loads, and provide more accurate simulation of load variation in power system reliability studies. The modified RBTS and IEEE-RTS79 system were analyzed to show that the proposed model is correct and effective.