中文摘要：

综合考虑频率崩溃发生的可能性和严重性，提出了电网频率崩溃风险的可靠性评估模型和算法。该模型计及了系统发电方式、网络拓扑和元件故障的随机不确定性。详细推导了有功缺额出现后系统频率变化量的计算方法，构建了反映频率崩溃的多种概率风险指标，实现了对电网频率崩溃风险的定量评价。所提方法可为低频减载配置方案的合理性和机一网的协调性提供一定参考依据。基于非序贯蒙特卡洛仿真，通过对IEEE—RTS79可靠性测试系统的评估分析验证了所提方法的正确性。

英文摘要：

In order to comprehensively consider the possibility and the severity of frequency instability risk, this paper proposes the risk evaluation model and algorithm for frequency collapse of power grid. The uncertainties in generating dispatch, network topology and component outage are considered. The calculation method for system frequency variation is depicted while considering the active power deficiency arising from random failure of generating units, and then various probabilistic risk indices for frequency collapse are defined. The presented method can provide important reference information for evaluating the frequency collapse risk of power grid. The non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation-based results of IEEE- RTS79 show the correctness of the method.