中文摘要：

营业税改征增值税是中国税制的重大改革，对中国居民福利、税收负担和收入分配产生重要影响。本文首次在测算税收负担的投入产出价格模型中引入增值税抵扣机制．并利用2012年中国投入产出表和中国家庭追踪调查数据，模拟分析了“营改增”的短期价格效应和收入分配效应。研究表明：在维持现有税收征管能力和按现行“营改增”试点方案下。“营改增”总体上将使得所有行业的价格（成本）有所下降，减轻了企业负担。若“营改增”后行业的增值税按法定税率完全征收，将导致部分劳动密集型服务业（交通运输和仓储业、邮政业、教育等）的价格和成本上升，进而加重这部分服务业企业的税收负担。“营改增”后．城镇各收入组家庭的人均税收负担的绝对额和负担率都有不同程度的下降。从“营改增”前后MT指数的比较看，在维持现行征管能力条件下，“营改增”后的税收制度略微改善了收入分配的状况。但是。一旦税收征管能力大幅提升，由于增值税的累退性较强．将进一步加剧居民税收负担，恶化收入分配。

英文摘要：

The reform of replacing business tax for VAT is an important change of China tax system, which has great impacts on tax burden, welfare and income distribution in China. This paper embedded the VAT deduction mechanism into the input-output price model, and used the CFPS data and China input-output table of 2012 to analyze the price effect and income distribution effect of the reform of replacing business tax for VAT. The results show that in the context of maintaining the existing tax ability of collection and administration of China, the reform of replacing business tax for VAT may generally make the price decline and reduce the tax burden on enterprises. If the ability of tax collection and administration has increased to 100%, there are some labor-intensive sectors whose price and cost could rise highly, such as transportation, postal service and education. After reform of replacing business tax for VAT, the VAT tax burden of households in cities and towns and the tax burden rate both decline. In the baseline scenario that the current ability of collection and administration remains, the reform of replacing business tax for VAT slightly has improved the status of income distribution from the perspective of MT index. However, once the ability of tax collection and administration has been greatly improved, due to the strong regressive of VAT, it is possible to increase the tax burden of residents and the deterioration of income distribution.