缺少成熟的电子废弃物回收管理政策及缺乏正规的电子废弃物回收渠道,制约着我国电器电子产业的高速发展。借鉴系统科学的观点,剖析电子废弃物回收处理系统的自组织演化特征,电子废弃物正规企业回收率和电子废弃物综合处置率这两个变量契合哈肯模型的本质要求。选取北京、上海、浙江等13个省市的数据,分析发现:各省市的电子废弃物正规企业回收率会有一个短暂的上升过程,到达极点后将会一直下降;各省市的电子废弃物综合处置率快速下降。正规企业回收率是电子废弃物回收处理系统演化的序参量,我国电子废弃物回收处理产业亟待升级,不断提高正规企业回收率和综合处置率才能促进电子废弃物回收处理产业的发展。
The purpose of studying the evolution mechanism of e-waste recycling system is to better explore the management way to promote e-waste industry and ecological recycling. This paper establishes the evolution equation of e-waste recycling systems,combining Haken model of self-organization theory with China's e-waste recycling practices. After 13 provinces and cities as sample been verified and predicted,it shows that regular recycling business recovery is the order parameter to control the evolution of e-waste recycling system. Now,improving the recovery rate of the formal recycling enterprises is imperative.