中文摘要：

本文研究了在产品需求和消费者产品估价均不确定的情况下,报童零售商的预售策略和无缺陷退货问题。零售商可以提供三种销售策略：不提供预售、提供部分退款退货服务的预售策略和提供全额退款退货服务的预售策略,所有预订产品在正常销售季节交付。研究发现,预订产品的全额退款退货策略和不提供退货策略都可能导致库存风险和估价不确定风险的不合理分摊,而最优的退货策略是部分退款退货策略,且最优退货价格为产品的残余价值。此外,全额退款和部分退款的退货策略只影响零售商的预售利润和销售季节退货量,并不影响零售商在正常销售季节的期望利润。研究还表明,预售需求和正常销售需求的相关性越高,预售优势越明显。

英文摘要：

Many companies have launched new products in ad- vance with sales promotions, such as price discount, free-shipping and gifts, aimed to gain selling capital in advance, reduce inven- tory risk and update demand forecast timely. Although customers enjoy the price discount in advance selling, there are still some obstacles affecting customers＇ purchasing decision, such as valu- ation uncertainty. In order to overcome this issue, return policy has become a very important weapon for companies to eliminate this uncertainty. Consequently, the advance selling strategy and return policy become an important topic in practice. However, little research pays attention to this consumer return problem in the context of advance selling, and even no study integrates the normal selling and advance selling strategies to investigate the firms＇ return policy. Thus, there is a need for such research on re- turn policy and multiple selling strategies. This paper studies ad- vance selling strategy for a newsvendor retailer with failure false return. In our model, consumers face valuation uncertainty and know their valuation realization only after acquisition. There also exists aggregate demand uncertainty, captured in the conventional newsvendor model. All pre-orders are fulfilled at the beginning of normal selling season. The newsvendor retailer can have three strategy options： no advance selling allowed （NRS）, advance sell- ing with full refund （FRS） and advance selling with partial refund （PRS）. Our study shows that both FRS and NRS strategies distort the allocation of inventory risk and uncertainty risk, and the opti- mal refund strategy is PRS, in which the optimal refund amount is the product＇s salvage value. Moreover, both FRS and PRS strate- gies will have a much influence on the advance selling profit and the return quantity, rather than the expected profit in the normal selling season. Furthermore, the higher the correlation value be- tween the demands in the advance selling period and in the normal sellin