中文摘要：

应用时间序列分析方法和动态贝叶斯网络模型,深入研究了人民币汇率对上中下游不同价格及其细分行业价格的传递机制。结果表明,人民币汇率对RMPI、CGPI和CPI的直接传递效应较显著,同时人民币汇率还可通过细分行业价格之间的传递作用间接对PPI、CGPI和CPI产生影响。研究发现,木材、化学、纺织等劳动密集型行业的价格对人民币汇率的波动比较敏感,而能源、黑色金属、有色金属等矿产类行业价格的汇率传递效应不显著。此外,中国的通货膨胀不仅仅是简单的货币现象,而是由人民币汇率和实体经济多重驱动。

英文摘要：

This paper employs time series method and dynamic Bayesian network method to measure the pass through of RMB exchange rate to prices of different stages and industrial prices. The result shows that the direct transfer effect of RMB exchange rate on RMPI,CGPI and CPI is remarkable. At the same time,the RMB exchange rate can also have indirect influence on PPI,CGPI and CPI by passing among segments of different industries. This study indicates that wood,chemistry,textile and other labor-intensive industry prices are sensitive to the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate,while the exchange rate pass-through effects of energy,black metal,non-ferrous metals and other mineral industries prices are not significant. In addition,inflation in China is not just a simple monetary phenomenon,but driven by exchange rate and the real economy.