中文摘要：

某钥匙的无常在压碎的煤上影响因素，例如三个主要压力的岩石强度，毛孔压力和大小和取向，能导致压碎的煤的无常并且使预言在条件下面压碎的煤很困难在原处水库。到为涉及压碎的煤的无常的报道，在条件下面压碎的煤的一个确定的预言模型在原处，水库基于 Hoek 布郎被建立标准。通过这个模型，压碎的煤上的关键影响因素作为随机的变量和相应概率密度函数被选择被联合实验数据和拉丁 Hypercube 方法决定。然后，到分析，压碎的煤的无常，一阶的秒时刻方法和介绍模型被联合到失败概率在压碎分析的煤包含了的地址。用介绍方法，压碎的煤的失败可能性在在失败概率之间的 Ningwu 盆，中国，和关系为 WS5-5 被分析很好，影响因素而且被讨论。结果证明 WS5-5 CBM 的失败可能性很好从 0.6 ～ 1.0 变化；而且为在 784.3785 m 的深度的煤缝接节，失败可能性等于 1，它与实验结果适合很好；压碎的煤的失败概率随主要压力差别的增加和单轴的压缩力量的减少介绍非线性的生长关系。

英文摘要：

The uncertainties of some key influence factors on coal crushing, such as rock strength, pore pressure and magnitude and orientation of three principal stresses, can lead to the uncertainty of coal crushing and make it very difficult to predict coal crushing under the condition of in-situ reservoir. To account for the uncertainty involved in coal crushing, a deterministic prediction model of coal crushing under the condition of in-situ reservoir was established based on Hoek-Brown criterion. Through this model, key influence factors on coal crushing were selected as random variables and the corresponding probability density functions were determined by combining experiment data and Latin Hypercube method. Then, to analyze the uncertainty of coal crushing, the first- order second-moment method and the presented model were combined to address the failure probability involved in coal crushing analysis. Using the presented method, the failure probabilities of coal crushing were analyzed for WS5-5 well in Ningwu basin, China, and the relations between failure probability and the influence factors were furthermore discussed. The results show that the failure probabilities of WS5-5 CBM well vary from 0.6 to 1.0; moreover, for the coal seam section at depth of 784.3-785 m, the failure probabilities are equal to 1, which fit well with experiment results; the failure probability of coal crushing presents nonlinear growth relationships with the increase of principal stress difference and the decrease of uniaxial compressive strength.