中文摘要：

在水电站梯级建设条件下,通过上游电站预泄、蓄洪削峰,削减下游待建电站的施工洪水,改变施工导流系统的洪水控制条件和系统特性。针对上游电站预泄条件下待建电站导流风险估计和方案决策研究,系统分析导流风险成因及其耦合关系,基于模拟仿真技术建立导流风险测度模型。结合导流工程特点研究上游电站与下游待建导流工程间的利益转移特性,提出一种可量化分析导流系统收益-损失优化分配的策略。采用效用函数将导流方案多目标规划问题转化为一次规划问题,以系统效益效用为导流方案优劣度量的综合评价指标,建立基于收益-损失协调分配的导流方案优选模型,实例验证了该模型是可靠的、适用的。研究为水电站梯级开发条件下施工导流方案拟定及优选提供一定的参考价值。

英文摘要：

In construction of cascade hydropower stations, through pre-discharge at the upstream stations that cuts flood peak and floodwater storage, the construction flood of the downstream station to build will also be reduced and the flood control condition and other characters of the construction diversion system are changed. In light of such a situation, this paper systematically examines the causes of construction diversion risk and its coupling relation and develops a measure model of diversion risk based on simulation technology. We studied the benefit transfer between upstream station and downstream diversion project, put forward a strategy for calculating the coordinated distribution of diversion system gain and loss, and developed a model for optimization of construction diversion schemes using the coordinated distribution of gain and loss. In this model, double goal optimization is singled by a utility function and system benefit utility is used as a comprehensive index to measure the quality of diversion schemes. An example is presented to verify the presented approach. ＇This study is useful for selecting a diversion scheme in cascade hydropower development.