中文摘要：

为预防并减少交通事故发生,将＂事后惩治＂转变为＂事前预防＂,构建了包括转向性能、交通条件等16个影响因素的高速公路交通安全风险评价指标体系,提出了AHP-TOPSIS-RSR法的高速公路交通安全风险评价方法,该方法基于系统分析及嫁接的思想,利用AHP法建立评价矩阵,通过引入熵权的TOPSIS法计算出交通安全风险综合评价指标值与理想值相对接近度值,结合RSR法,根据风险等级的分档标准,对相对接近度值进行分档。基于正交试验法提出高速公路交通安全敏感性分析模型,并计算各因素敏感度值,根据其排序确定主要敏感风险指标,并以福建永武（永安-武平）高速公路为例对该方法进行验证。研究结果表明：永武高速公路交通安全风险等级为Ⅰ级-巨警,风险等级高;疲劳/无证驾驶、车辆超速、线形条件、交通条件、不良天气、救援机制的风险指标敏感度分别达到：0.472 1、0.508 8、0.759 8、0.814 2、0.529 6、0.468 5,属于安全敏感风险指标,基本反映了永武高速公路的交通安全实际状况。

英文摘要：

In order to prevent and reduce traffic accidents, ＂afterwards punishment＂ should be transformed into ＂beforehand preventing＂. This paper constructed expressway traffic safety risk evaluation index system including 16 influence factors such as steering performance, traffic conditioned etc. Based on the thoughts of system analysis and grafting, the model of expressway traffic safety risk assessment based on the method of AHP-TOPSIS-RSR was put forward and AHP method was used to establish evaluation matrix. TOPSIS method with entropy was introduced to calculate the relative approach degree values between traffic safety risk comprehensive evaluation index values and the ideal values, and combined with RSR method, the rela- tive approach degree values were classified according to the highway traffic safety risk grade of hierarchy standard. Based on the method of orthogonal test, the model of safety sensitivity analysis was put forward. The sensitivity value of each factor was calculated and the main sensitive factors were determined by their order. The paper verified the proposed method on Yongwu Expressway. The results show that the security risk on Yongwu Expresway is level I, namely huge warning, which is high. The risk sensitivity value of the indicator of fatigue/driving without a license, vehicle speed, condition of road alignment, traffic conditions,adverse weather, rescue mechanism is 0. 472 1, 0. 508 8, 0. 759 8, 0. 814 2, 0. 529 6, 0. 468 5 respectively. They are the safety sensitive indicators. Risk assessment results can reflect the traffic safety situation of Yongwu Expressway. 7 tabs, 1 fig, 21 refs.