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中文摘要：
基于作者提出的孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与相关预测方法,作者曾对于田地震区未来震情进行了前瞻性预测分析,给出了该地震区强（大）震事件的震级、震中经纬度、震源深度以及临界Benioff应变值四要素预测结果.将上述四要素预测结果与2014年2月12日新疆于田MS7.3级地震参数进行比较,表明：四要素预测值与实际值相差不大,对于田地震区的前瞻性中长期预测结果可信.此外,本文认为2008年新疆于田—策勒ML6.6级震群事件是2014年新疆于田7.3级地震发震的直接导火索.
英文摘要：
Based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and associated prediction method developed by us,the prediction results,including the magnitude,place,critical strain,and hypocentral depth of the oncoming strong earthquake for Yutian seismic zone have been published in advance.In comparison with the Yutian MS7.3earthquake in Xinjiang occurred on 12February 2014,they are almost identical,which indicates that our prospective prediction results are credible.Meanwhile,it is shown that the most immediate cause leading to the Yutian 7.3earthquake occurred in Xinjiang is attributed to the Yutian-Cele ML6.6earthquake swarm events in 2008.
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