长寿风险已成为保险公司面临的主要风险因素之一。本文构建了考虑到随机利率因素的长寿风险的自然对冲模型,通过实例研究后发现忽视利率风险的影响将会使保险公司不能做到长寿风险的充分对冲,此外,与男性相比,女性保单面临更为严峻的长寿风险,最后,使用Lee—Carter死亡率模型会存在过度对冲的问题,Lee—Carter模型高估了长寿风险水平。
Longevity risk has become one of the major risk factors faced by insurance companies. This paper constructed a natural hedging model against longevity risk taking into account the random interest rate. Through the empirical analysis, we found out that ignoring the impact of interest rate risk would fail to fully hedge against longevity risk. Compared with male policies, policies covering females faced with more severe longevity risks. However, using Lee-Carter non-optimal mortality model would result in over-hedging because it overestimated the longevity risk.