提要上海在十余年前就提出了构建多中心城市结构的政策主张.希冀以此缓解单中心城市结构导致的城市拥挤等问题。为了检验这一政策的实施效果,对上海多中心结构的形成进程进行了实证分析。首先从居住中心和就业中心两个角度对上海的多中心结构进行了测度.指标分别采用分街道的居住人口密度和就业岗位密度。数据的时间序列对比分析显示,上海基于居住和就业功能的多中心结构尚未形成,且随着时间推移,单中心城市蔓延趋势明显.给下一步多中心结构的形成带来巨大的挑战。为了探寻这一现象的形成机制和原因,运用了住宅选址理论分析框架.同时结合上海实际对该理论进行了扩展和修正。最后就上海多中心结构的战略走向提出了相应观点。
The policy of developing new towns and constructing polycentric urban structure has been put forward in the Shanghai Master Plan for ten years. It aims to relieve the urban problem such as traffic congestion which is mainly caused by mono-centric urban structure. In order to examine the effect of this policy, an empirical study on the evolvement of Shanghai's urban spatial structure is made in this paper. Firstly, the polycentric urban structure is measured in the angles of both residential centers and employment centers, using the index of residential population density and employment density. The time series analysis of the statistics indicates that the polycentric urban structure has not formed, and the space sprawl is obvious as time goes by, which are a big challenge for constructing polycentric urban structure. Then the theory of residential location is applied to explain the mechanism of this phenomenon, as well as an extension and revision of the theory is drawn according to Shanghai's case. Finally, several views and strategies are put forward to promote the formation of polycentfic urban structure of Shanghai.