中文摘要：

本文在准确选取江苏省2001—2014年物流货运和客运统计数据的基础上,构建和运用灰色预测模型,对江苏省总物流需求量及各运输方式物流需求量进行预测。研究表明：在相对有效预测时间范围内,江苏省物流需求量整体将呈现较为显著的增长趋势,其中货运量增长速度超过客运量;公路运输依然是物流运输方式的第一选择,铁路的运输空间有所收缩,管道运输正成为新兴的运输方式。在此基础上,提出应及时有效地制定区域物流业发展规划,出台相应的指导政策及建议,以提升公路、铁路、水运、管道及航空五种交通运输方式的能力。

英文摘要：

Based on accurate logistics freight and passenger traffic statistical data from 2001 to 2014 in Jiangsu province,this paper constructs and applies grey prediction model to predict the total logistics demand and logistics demand for different means of transportation in Jiangsu province. Research shows that in a relatively effective prediction time range,logistics demand in Jiangsu province as a whole will present more significant growth trend and the freight volume grows at a faster rate than the passenger traffic. Highway transportation is still the first choice of logistics mode of transportation,railway transportation space shrinks,and pipeline transportation is becoming a new way. Based on the findings,regional logistics industry development planning should be established timely and effectively,the corresponding guiding policy and advice should be introduced to promote the capacities of five transportation means,namely,highway,railway,waterway,pipeline and air.