本文借助现代计量经济分析方法,对上海期货交易所、伦敦金属交易所和纽约商业交易所铜期货价格之间的联系以及各个市场在价格发现中的贡献份额进行了实证研究,研究结果表明:三个市场铜期货价格之间存在协整关系,期货价格之间相互影响、相互作用,一个市场的价格信息将对另外两个相关市场的价格波动产生影响;伦敦期铜市场在国际定价中处于主导地位,纽约市场次之,上海市场的定价能力最小,但上海市场与纽约市场的国际定价能力较为接近。
For studying the international pricing of copper in China, the relationships of copper futures prices among Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), London Metal Exchange (LME) and New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and their contributions to price discovery are investigated empirically with econometrics. The results show that there is a cointegration relationship among three copper futures prices in different markets and they influence each other. The price information can transmit from one to other two markets. In general, LME plays a dominant role in the international pricing of copper, NYMEX plays weaker role than LME and SHFE has the weakest pricing ability. Nevertheless the international pricing level in SHFE is close to that in NYMEX.