中文摘要：

地下水数值模拟常受到模型不确定性、观测资料不确定性等多种不确定性因素的影响，对这些影响因素进行定量分析十分必要。将差分进化自适应梅特罗波利斯（Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis, DREAM）算法与MODFLOW模型结合应用于地下水数值模拟不确定性的定量分析。以模型结构概化、水位观测资料误差这两种重要不确定性来源为例，通过一个理想地下水流模型，系统分析两者对模型参数及模型输出结果不确定性的影响。研究结果表明：模型结构概化及水位观测资料误差共同引起了地下水数值模拟的不确定性，但模型结构概化起到了主控作用。模型结构概化合理时，模型参数及模型输出结果的不确定性较小，并随观测资料误差不确定性的增大而增大；模型结构概化不合理时，模型参数及模型输出结果主要受控于模型结构概化带来的影响，且不确定性显著增大；观测资料误差相同情况下，模型结构概化越接近于真实的水文地质条件，模型参数及模型输出结果的不确定性越小。

英文摘要：

Numerical simulation of groundwater is often affected by the uncertainty of model generalization, observation errors and so on. Therefore, it is very necessary to quantitatively analyze these uncertain factors. In this study, The DREAM （Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis） algorithm is combined with the MODFLOW and applied to quantitatively analyze the uncertainty of the numerical simulation results of groundwater. For an ideal groundwater simulation model, the uncertainty of the simulation results which affected by the uncertainty of model structure generalization and the head observation errors is systematically analyzed. The study results show that the uncertainty of model structure generalization and the head observation errors cause the uncertainty of the groundwater simulation simultaneously. However, the uncertainty of model structure generalization is the controlling factor. When the model structure is correct, the uncertainty of model parameters and simulation results are small, and increase with the increasing of the observation errors. When the model structure is incorrect, the uncertainty of model parameters and simulation results are significantly increased, and mainly affected by the uncertainty of model structure generalization. Furthermore, under the same observation errors, the model structure generalization is more close to the real hydrogeological condition, the uncertainty of model parameters and simulation results is smaller.