以河北省唐山市滦县为例,基于乡镇气象资料历史序列的构建,利用AHP决策分析法和加权综合评价法,结合GIS空间分析技术,对滦县干旱灾害风险进行评估与区划。结果表明,旱灾高风险区多发生在东部古马镇、雷庄镇、响瞠镇、油榨镇等;轻度旱灾风险区一般发生在西部及西北部的山丘地区,如杨柳庄镇、九百户等乡镇。通过实际历史数据验证,滦县干旱灾害风险评估模型比较客观,能够全面反映出滦县的干旱灾害风险水平。对不同的风险区域采取针对性的防治措施,能够最大限度地减少干旱灾害带来的损失。
Based on historical sequence construction of meteorological data in villages and towns, by using AHP decision analytical method, weighting comprehensive evaluation method, and GIS spatial analysis theory and technology, taking the drought disaster of Luan County as the example, the risk assessment and zoning was analyzed. The result indicated that the areas with high level drought disaster risk were located in the east towns, such as Guma, Leizhuang, Xiangtang and Youzha, etc. The areas with lower level drought disaster risk were located in the west and south west massif towns, such as Yangliuzhuang and Jiubaihu, etc. Comparing with the historical disaster data, the assessment and zoning of drought disaster results were in accordance with the actual distributions. The losses caused by drought disaster could be farthest reduced by taking the proper measures according to different risk zoning.