中文摘要：

针对城市快速路的常发性拥堵现象,在尖点突变理论的基础上,利用实测数据样本,从拥堵的形成和消散两个角度分析对比了流量、速度、占有率三个参数的关联特征,对交通流拥堵的演化过程进行了详细的阐述。将交通流参数随时间的分布与尖点突变平衡曲面联合,利用坐标变换将实测数据转换成尖点突变的投影分布,在空间上,通过分析不同车道拥堵的形成和消散过程,完整地展示出交通流拥堵的时空演化机理。本文的研究从时空的角度出发,综合多个交通流参数对拥堵进行界定,利用交通流在尖点突变平衡曲面的分布,预测拥堵出现的临界点以及消散过程,为制定交通拥堵的控制和疏导策略提供指导性建议。

英文摘要：

In view of the frequent congestion in urban expressway, the associated characteristics of flow, speed and occupation ratio of three parameters are analyzed and compared from two aspects of formation and dissipation of congestion based on the cusp catastrophe theory by using the measured data samples, and the evolution process of traffic congestion is elaborated in detail. Traffic flow parameters of time and space distribution is balanced with the cusp catastrophe joint surface using coordinate transform to convert the measured data to point mutations of projection distribution. Through the analysis of the formation and dissipation process of the internal lane congestion, evolution characteristics of different lanes congestion, the paper gives a whole display about the space-time evolution of the traffic congestion mechanism. With the research from the perspective of time and space, multiple traffic flow parameters are integrated to define congestion based on the distribution of the equilibrium traffic flow in the surface of cusp catastrophe to work out congestion points and predicate dissipation process, which will provide guidance for traffic control and guidance strategies.