笔者基于我国2003年1季度至2011年2季度的经验数据,在生命周期理论和持久收入假说基础上,应用门限回归模型实证分析了我国城镇居民消费行为特征。实证研究结果表明:我国高收入居民和低收入居民的消费行为并不一致,高收入居民不具有过度敏感性,而低收入居民具有过度敏感性。进一步分析表明:低收入居民对收入的过度敏感性不是由消费者的短视行为所引起的,而是由于流动性约束所导致。此外研究还发现:利率变动对居民的消费行为并不显著,这表明在我国当前的经济环境下,施行利率调控政策将难以影响居民消费行为。
This paper uses quarterly data from 2003 : Q1 to 2011 : Q2 in China. The study applies threshold regression model to investigate the characteristics of household consumption behavior and its implication on the life cycle hypothesis/permanent income hypothesis. The result shows that household of high income and low income people's consumption behavior is not consistent. Household of high income have Excess sensitivity of consumption to income, while household of low income don't have. To further explore the cause of the empirical failure of the LCH/PIH, we find that the rejection of the LCH/PIH results from the existence of the liquidity constraints, rather than myopia. The study also finds that the influence of interest rate changing on consumer behavior was not significant. This indicates that the implementation of interest rate control policy will be difficult to influence consumers' behavior in current.