中文摘要：

以煤为主的能源结构给江苏的经济运行、生态环境带来了巨大压力，同时，”西气东输”，可再生能源较为丰富又为江苏的能源结构调整带来了机遇。将环境因子纳入模型之中，以社会福利最大化为目标，构建了能源梯度替代结构优化模型。运算结果表明：江苏未来15年的能源消费结构从以煤为主，逐渐向以天然气、核能、可再生能源的多样化结构过渡，呈现出煤炭，石油、天然气、核能和可再生能源几者并重的多元化局面。

英文摘要：

The energy consumption structure of taking coal as the most important part has brought enormous pressure to the economy running and the ecological environment in Jiangsu. On the other hand, there are opportunities for energy structure restructuring of Jiangsu due to ＂west - to - east natural gas transmission project＂ and comparatively abundant renewable energy. In this paper, with the objective of maximizing social welfare, an optimization model of gradual energy substitution structure for Jiangsu is constructed in which the environmental factors are took into consideration. The calculated results of the model show that in the coming 15 years Jiangsu＇s energy consumption structure will gradually transfer from coal is taken as the most important energy to besides coal various energy such as oil, natural gas, nuclear energy and renewable energy will play import role together in energy consumption.