中文摘要：

利用生态足迹和生态压力指数的理论与方法，对汾河上游流域1987年-2003年的生态足迹、生态承载力、生态盈余亏损、生态压力指数进行了测算，并建立了生态压力指数测算模型以及生态足迹、生态承载力、生态盈余及生态安全度变化预测模型．测算结果表明：1）本地区生态承载力呈减少趋势；2）生态足迹均呈现增加趋势；3）1987-2007年生态压力指数从0．77增长为1．64，增长幅度为0．87，增长幅度较大；4）汾河上游流域已经超载，处于不安全状态。

英文摘要：

It calculated the ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity, ecological surplus/loss in the the upper reaches of Fenhe River during the period of 1987-2003, with the theory and Method of the ecological footprint and the ecological pressure index. In this paper, two models were set up for calculating ecological pressure index as well as predicting ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity, ecological surplus and ecological safety changing. The results of study indicated. 1）The ecological carrying capacity of this area showed atendency of reduction. 2）The ecological footprint showed atendency of increase. 3）The indexof the ecological pressure increased from 0.77 to 1.64 from 1987 to 2003,and the increased range was 0.87 which was large comparatively. 4） The upper reaches of heavily and developed in an unsafe state. Fenhe River have already been over loaded heavily and developed in an unsafe state.