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中文摘要：
为研究适合城市交通网络控制系统应用的交通流预测模型,在改进Van DenBerg,M的路段交通流模型的基础上,建立了以路口交通流为基本建模单元,以动态非线性离散方程反映交通流变化的城市交通网络宏观模型。为验证该模型能有效地预测城市路网的交通流信息,在VC＋＋.net环境下,开发了城市交通宏观控制模型仿真系统UTFS,设计了网络拓扑结构模块,以适应不同规模、不同复杂程度的实际交通网络的仿真要求。最后选取典型网络进行应用研究。仿真结果表明：该模型满足交通控制对控制模型的实时性和精度要求,该仿真系统可以作为城市交通网络宏观控制模型验证的有效工具,也可以作为城市交通控制系统控制和优化研究的辅助工具。
英文摘要：
The problem of traffic flow forecast model of city traffic control systems is discussed. A control-oriented macroscopic dynamic traffic flow discrete model is presented to describe the main urban traffic network dynamic behavior. In order to test the validity of the model , an urban macroscopic traffic simulation system is developed based on VC ＋ ＋. net compiler. A general urban traffic network topology is proposed for network simulation by decomposing it into certain network elements. An application case of actual traffic net is given . The simulation results show that the model is fit for on line accurately prediction in traffic control. The system is suitable for urban traffic control system analysis and optimal control.
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