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中文摘要：
针对制造车间多瓶颈预测问题，提出一种基于两种瓶颈度的多瓶颈动态预测方法，以在合理认定瓶颈责任的前提下实现系统多瓶颈的连续准确预测。首先，建立综合瓶颈度和独立瓶颈度的概念模型，并以时间、质量和成本为参数，构建其数学模型；然后，构建包含多瓶颈双层预测机制、瓶颈多态性分析和瓶颈指数迭代预测模型的多瓶颈动态预测方法；最后，将多瓶颈动态预测方法、单瓶颈度法和PBM 法运用至某汽车产品总装线，以验证该方法有效性。
英文摘要：
Aiming at the prediction problem of multi-bottleneck in complex manufacturing shop , a dynamic prediction method of multi-bottleneck was proposed based on two bottleneck degrees ,which can forecast bottleneck accurately under conditions that bottleneck responsibility was verified reasona-bly .Firstly ,conceptual models about general bottleneck degree and independent bottleneck degree were built ,and then taking time ,quality and cost as parameters ,their mathematical models were es-tablished .Secondly ,one dynamic prediction method of multi-bottleneck was come up with ,which con-tained dual-layer multi-bottleneck prediction mechanism ,bottleneck polymorphism analysis and the it-erative prediction of bottleneck index .Finally ,it is proved to be superior and credible by comparison to the method of single bottleneck degree and the method of PBM for production bottleneck prediction problem of one vehicle assembly line .
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