中文摘要：

采用作物生长动态统计模型，对渭干河-库车河三角洲绿洲冬小麦、夏玉米和棉花种植的光合、光温、光温水、光温土和光温水土生产潜力进行计算和分析。分析结果显示：研究区冬小麦、夏玉米和棉花种植的光温生产潜力远大于实际生产力，分别实际生产力的161．06％，134．15％和196．71％，光热资源丰富；光温土生产潜力与实际生产力较接近，分别为冬小麦、夏玉米和棉花实际生产力的80．40％、66．97％和98．20％，土壤肥力限制因子很大；光温水和光温水土生产潜力都远小于实际生产力，分别为冬小麦、夏玉米和棉花实际生产力的10．36％和5．17％、8．63％和4．31％、12．68％和6．31％％，水是制约作物气候生产潜力的最关键因子，没有灌溉，颗粒无收。渭干河-库车河三角洲绿洲光热资源是作物气候生产力最突出的优势，土壤水肥条件是限制作物气候生产力的主要可控因子，改善土壤水肥条件是实现作物气候生产潜力的有效途径。

英文摘要：

The photosynthesis productive potential, sunlight -temperature productive potential, sunlight -temperature - water productive potential, sunlight - temperature - soil productive potential and sunlight - temperature - water - soil productive potential of winter wheat, summer corn and cotton in Ukan - Kuqa fiver delta oasis were calculated and analyzed using the revised dynamic statistic model of crop growth. The results showed that the sunlight -temperature productive potentials are much higher than realistic productive powers of these three plants in this area, which are 161.06% ,134.15% and 196.71% of their realistic productive power respectively, and this area is rich in sunlight - hot resources. The sunlight - temperature - soil productive potentials are similar to the realistic productive powers of these three plant s in this region, which are 80.40%, 66.97% and 98.20% of their realistic productive powers , and the soil fertility is an important restrictive factor of cotton growing. The sunlight -temperature- water productive potential and sunlight -temperature -water- soil productive potential are much lower than their realistic productive power of these three plants in this oasis, and they are on ly10.36% and 5.17% ,,8.63% and 4.31%, 12.68% and 6.31% of their realistic productive powers respectively, and water is the most important factor restricting the climate productive potential. The sunIight and heat conditions in Ukan - Kuqa river delta oasis are the most out standing advantages for climatic productive potential, and soil water and soil fertility are main controllable factors restricting the climate productive potential. The effective way of the implementation of main corps＇s potential productivities in Ukan - Kuqa river delta oasis is to improve soil water and soil fertility condition in this region.