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中文摘要：
在所提出的风险评估模型中,将线路的故障可能性看做随机模糊数,基于证据理论构造了架空线路的故障可能性模型,可更好地反映外部环境对线路故障可能性的影响;并采用效用函数度量电力系统元件故障损失带来的不满意程度,所给出的指标能灵敏地反映电力系统故障风险的变化趋势,符合电网运行实际;最后以北京电网为例,说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。
英文摘要：
In the proposed risk assessment model, the failure possibility of overhead lines is regarded as a random fuzzy variable. Based on the evidence theory, the failure possibility model for overhead lines is constructed which can better reflect the effect of the surroundings on the failure possibility. In the risk assessment model, the utility function is used to measure the degree of dissatisfaction induced by failures and the proposed risk indices can sensitively reflect the trends of risk indices and accord with the actual power system operation. Finally, the Beijing power grid is used as a research example to show the feasibility and effectiveness of the method proposed.
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