依据压力-状态-响应概念框架,在分析水危机形成机理的基础上,建立了评价区域水危机的指标体系,并利用模糊评判方法对东江流域的河源、惠州、东莞各市1995~2006年间的水危机度进行了评价。结果表明,河源市水资源状况较好,目前不存在水危机情形,惠州市从2002年后开始轻度的水危机,东莞和深圳在20世纪90年代后期开始出现水危机,且在降雨较少的2004年,出现了严重的水危机情形,这为科学管理东江流域水资源、提高水资源承载能力提供了一种评价方法和决策依据。
The index system of region water resources crisis basing on the the mechanism of water resourcescrisis according to the PSR theory is set up. The phases of degrees of region water resources crisis of Heyuan, Huizhou, Dongguan, Shenzhen in Dongjiang river basin from 1995 to 2006 are evaluated by usingfuzzy comprehensive evaluation basing on the index system and its facts. The results shows that the water resource in Heyuan is sufficient and no water crisis happened, but there have been some low-grade water crisis in Huizhou since 2002. In Dongguan and Shenzhen where are more developed are facing more serious water crisis since the 1990s. So what have been do in this paper can be used in improving the management of water resource in Dongjiang and its carrying capacity.