中文摘要：

用灵活全球 Ocean-Atmosphere-Land 系统 Model-gamil ( FGOALS-g )为赤道的太平洋预言的海表面温度( SST )，预言错误的分析中立的年为 SST 异例的季节地依赖的可预测性被执行并且为 El Ni 的生长/腐烂阶段? o/La Ni ?一事件。学习结果为关于生长阶段和 El Ni 的腐烂阶段的 SST 预言显示了那 ? o 事件，预言错误有季节地依赖的进化。错误的最大的增加发生在春天季节，它显示一个突出的春天可预测性障碍(SPB ) 发生在 El Ni 期间 ? 温暖事件的 o 南部的摆动(ENSO ) 。而且，与生长阶段预言联系的 SPB 比与腐烂阶段预言联系了的是更突出的。然而， La 分阶段执行 Ni 中立的年并且为生长和腐烂 ? 一事件， SPB 现象是不太突出的。这些结果显示 SPB 现象自己广泛地取决于 ENSO 事件。特别地， SPB 取决于 ENSO 事件的阶段。这些结果可以为改进预报的 ENSO 提供有用知识。

英文摘要：

Using the sea surface temperature （SST） predicted for the equatorial Pacific Ocean by the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model-gamil （FGOALS-g）, an analysis of the prediction errors was performed for the seasonally dependent predictability of SST anomalies both for neutral years and for the growth/decay phase of El Nino/La Nina events. The study results indicated that for the SST predictions relating to the growth phase and the decay phase of El Nino events, the prediction errors have a seasonally dependent evolution. The largest increase in errors occurred in the spring season, which indicates that a prominent spring predictability barrier （SPB） occurs during an El Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） warming episode. Furthermore, the SPB associated with the growth-phase prediction is more prominent than that associated with the decay-phase prediction. However, for the neutral years and for the growth and decay phases of La Nifia events, the SPB phenomenon was less prominent. These results indicate that the SPB phenomenon depends extensively on the ENSO events themselves. In particular, the SPB depends on the phases of the ENSO events. These results may provide useful knowledge for improving ENSO forecasting.