中文摘要：

风电之间具有非线性相关的特性,研究其对配电网概率潮流的影响,对提高系统的安全性、可靠性和经济性具有重要意义。提出一种考虑风电之间非线性相关性的配电网概率潮流计算方法,该方法基于经验Copula函数生成风电功率样本,与常规的基于高斯分布、t-分布等概率分布函数的方法相比,基于经验分布函数可以较好地反映风电功率的随机特性。建立含风电的配电网潮流模型,介绍PQ节点、PV节点以及PQ（U）节点的处理方法,并采用前推回代法进行解算。最后,将所提方法应用于纯辐射型配网和弱环型配网概率潮流计算中,对比分析不考虑风电相关性、考虑线性相关性以及考虑非线性相关性的结果。对比结果表明,考虑非线性相关性的结果与实际情况更为接近,可为电力系统运行调度提供更为准确的参考信息。

英文摘要：

Due to the nonlinear correlation of wind powers,it is of significance to consider the wind power nonlinear in the probability load flow of distribution network,especially in the aspects of security,reliability and economy of the system.In this paper,a method for calculating probability load flow of distribution network is proposed,based on the empirical copula function of wind power. Compared with the traditional methods,such as the methods based on Gauss distribution and t distribution,the samples of wind power generated by proposed method has better performances on approximating the wind power characteristics. The mathematic model of distribution network power flow with wind power is formulated. Also,the treatment methods for the PQ nodes,PV nodes and PQ（ U） node are introduced. The forward and backward substitution method is applied in calculating the power flow of distribution network. Finally,the proposed method is applied to the probabilistic load flow calculation of the pure radial distribution network and the weakly meshed distribution network,comparing with the results of no correlation and liner correlation. The results indicate that the proposed method can obtain better results,which provides more accurate reference information for the operation of power system.