中文摘要：

分析了高速铁路列车运行过程中随机干扰的分布规律和累积过程,采用运行计划的状态偏离图,描述了高速铁路列车运行延误的变化机理。分析了高速铁路列车运行过程中冗余时间的分布规律与利用过程,采用运行计划的状态恢复图,描述了冗余时间对延误时间的吸收过程。根据运行干扰作用过程与冗余时间利用过程,研究了高速铁路列车运行冲突的产生机理,建立了随机干扰和冗余时间共同作用下高速铁路列车运行状态的递推过程。运用易语言开发了运行干扰-冗余时间-冲突仿真程序,当干扰概率分别为50%和30%,冗余时间比例分别为15%和10%时,仿真了4种工况下高速铁路列车运行冲突的产生机理。仿真结果表明：随机干扰会导致运行冲突的产生,冗余时间可以吸收延误时间并减小运行冲突个数;随机干扰越小,运行冲突个数越少,当随机干扰概率减小20%时,冲突个数减小17.3%;延误时间越大,可利用的冗余时间越大,当冗余时间比例增大5%时,冲突吸收系数增大6.5%;冗余时间对小干扰概率与小干扰总量下的运行冲突吸收作用更明显。

英文摘要：

During the running process of high-speed railway train,the distribution regularity and cumulative process of random interference were analyzed.The status deviation map of running plan was used,and the change mechanism of running delay for high-speed railway train was described.During the running process of high-speed railway train,the distribution regularity and utilization process of redundancy time were analyzed.The status recovery map of running plan was used,and the process that redundancy time assimilated delay time was described.Based on the interacting process of running interference and utilization process of redundancy time,the generation mechanism of running conflict for high-speed railway train was studied,and the recurrent process of running status for high-speed railway train under the interaction of random interference and redundancy time was set up.The simulation system of running interference,redundancy time and conflict was developed by Yi language.While interference probabilities were 50% and 30% respectively and redundancy time proportions were 15% and 10% respectively,the generation mechanisms of running conflict for high-speed railway train under 4 conditions were simulated.Simulation result indicates that random interference can lead to the generation of running conflict,and redundancy time can absorb delay and reduce conflict numbers.The smaller random interference is,the fewer running conflict is.When interference probability reduces by 20%,the running conflict number reduces by 17.3%.The bigger delay is,the larger available redundancy time is.When the proportion of redundancy time increases by 5%,the coefficient of conflict absorption increases by 6.5%.The redundancy time plays more obvious role on absorbing running conflict when there are little interference probability and small total interference.3 tabs,9 figs,23 refs.