中国的税收以间接税为主,这不利于调节收入分配差距。衡量税制和收入分配的关系,具有重要的理论和政策意义。本文利用2004年东北地区部分行业的增值税转型试点,衡量了增值税转型对国民收入初次分配的影响。本文基于2000—2007年规模以上制造业企业数据,利用三重差分方法,发现增值税转型导致劳动份额下降了4%,降幅在政策变化后第二年达到峰值,而且对外资和国有部门的影响尤为显著。企业雇佣人数和工资总额的下降,是增值税转型降低劳动份额的重要渠道。本文建议中国通过进一步完善个人所得税和财产税等措施,矫正增值税转型对初次收入分配的不利作用。
The fiscal revenue of China is dominated by indirect tax, which contributes to the aggravating income inequality. It is relevant to evaluate the causal effect of the indirect tax system on income distribution. We investigate the causal effect of the value-added tax reform in the Northeastern region since 2004 on the primary income distribution. Using the difference in difference in differences (DDD) methodology and data on above-scale manufacturing firms between 2000 and 2007, it is found that the value-add tax reform significantly reduced the labor share by a magnitude of 4 percent, with the peak occurring in 2005. The labor share of the foreign sector and the state-owned sector dropped the most. Declining employment and wage are the major channels of the negative effect. We recommend the government to take further steps on individual income tax and property tax to offset the adverse effect of the consumption-type value-added tax on primary income distribution.