人口发展功能分区研究是解决我国宏观与区域人口布局的重大课题。已有的研究多以行政区划为基本单元,研究尺度涉及国家级、省级以及市县级,较少涉及城市圈的人口功能分区。以武汉城市圈为研究对象,以传统的基于行政区划的人口发展功能区为参比,在对统计型人口数据进行空间化的基础上,以人口数据与地理数据的叠加分析结果为基本依据,通过建立人口与耕地、水体和高程的决策树,探索一种全新的人口功能分区路径,并对两种人口功能分区的结果进行对比分析。研究表明:和传统的基于行政区划的人口发展功能分区结果相比,基于人口数据空间化技术的人口发展功能分区结果在总体上与前者吻合,同时具有如下优势:一是在分区方法上摈弃了诸多的指标计算,二是分区的精度得到了加强,三是更加有利于统计数据与资源环境数据的耦合分析。对今后特定区域的人口发展功能分区研究具有一定的借鉴意义,为实现更加客观、更有利于应用的规划方法提供思路。
In the next few decades,our nation's population quantity will reach to a new peak,and it will be a critical period during which the relationship between population and nature will be more tense. How to guide the orderly flow of the population,and then form a reasonable population distribution pattern? It is a very significant problem that be confronted by our national government and demographic researchers. In order to solve the macroscopical population distribution problem,and to serve better the overall strategy of the national economy and the sustainable development, the functional zoning of population development which was put forward by the national population and family planning commission begun to be studied. At present,the majority zoning method was based on the administrative division. The research scale involved national level, provincial level and county level, and the metropolitan region level was little involved. Taking Wuhan Metropolitan Region as an example, this paper put forward a new method on functional zoning of population development through establishing the decision tree of population distribution which depended on arable land, water resource and altitude, and this method was firstly based on the overlay analysis of the statistical population data and the geographic data. In the research, the spatialization technology of statistical population data was also used. Furthermore, the zoning result was compared between which was based on administrative division and which was based on grid cell. The results showed that the new method was not only agree with the old one in general, but also more outstanding in the following three aspects. Firstly, in the new method the massive index calculation was abandoned. Secondly, the accuracy of the zoning was strengthened. Thirdly, it was more convenient for the coupling analysis of the statistical population data and the geographic data. This study may provide some ideas which was more objective and more simple on functional zoning of population develop