本文以2005年6月-2008年1月中国A股市场数据为样本,运用VEC模型以及脉冲响应与方差分解分析方法,就股市规模与股价波动性之间的相互影响进行实证检验。实证结果表明:股市资金供求双方综合规模(简称股市综合规模)的正向冲击会导致股价波动性加大,股价波动性加大又会反过来加速股市综合规模的扩张,这种反馈效应强化了股市综合规模对股价波动性的上述正向影响,并且,股市综合规模扩张之所以会加大股价波动性,主要是因为股市资金供给方规模扩张会加大股价波动性。针对上述情况,本文的结论是:为维护股市稳定,应控制股市规模尤其是股市资金供给方规模过快扩张。
The empirical study concentrates on the interaction between China's stock market size and stock price volatility. Empirical results show that:(1)The expansion of the comprehensive size of stock market has a positive effect on stock price volatility; (2) In turn,stock price volatility produces a positive feedback effect; (3)The main reason for (1) is that the expansion of the size of funds providers has a positive effect on stock price volatility. Relevant policy suggestion is:In order to maintain the stability of China's stock market,the government should prevent the size of stock market,especially the size of funds providers,from expanding too fast.