根据金融包容内涵设计金融包容指标,利用IMF的"金融可获得性调查"数据库测算65个发展中国家金融包容水平。在此基础上,将金融包容作为金融发展的广度指标,与金融深度指标共同作为金融发展的代理变量,通过面板协整分析与误差修正模型,检验金融包容、金融深化与经济增长之间的关系。结果表明:在长期,三者存在双向Granger因果关系,且金融包容的经济增长效应大于金融深化;在短期,三者之间没有Granger因果关系。研究结论对于发展中国家金融发展战略的制定具有重要启示。
The paper first designs indicators to measure financial inclusion based on its connotation,and calculates the composite scores of financial inclusion of 65 developing countries with the data from "financial access survey"of IMF. Then the paper takes financial inclusion as the breadth indicator of financial development,and regards it as proxy variables of financial development together with financial depth indicator. Finally,the relationships among financial inclusion,financial deepening and economic growth are tested through panel cointegration analysis and a panel error correction model. The results reveal a two-way Granger causality among them in the long run,and the impact of financial inclusion on economic growth is much larger than financial deepening. In the short term,there is no Granger causality among them. The conclusion sheds some light on the making of financial development strategy in developing countries.