从工业企业产值、进出口、投资、货币供应量等多个维度,对宏观经济不确定性指标进行了测算,并在此基础上,利用2001年至2013年中国的151家银行类金融机构数据,实证分析了宏观经济不确定性对银行利差的影响。研究发现:宏观经济不确定性是银行利差的重要决定因素;在控制其他影响变量的条件下,宏观经济不确定性对银行利差具有显著正向影响,互联网金融的发展对银行利差具有显著的负向影响。结论对于完善金融监管机制及货币政策制定等政策建议提供了实证支持。
The paper measures macroeconomic uncertainty index from the perspectives of in- dustrial enterprise output, import and export, investment and monetary supply. Based on this and the financial data of 151 banking institutions in China from 2001 to 2013, an empirical analysis is made on the impact of economic uncertainty on net interest margin. The results show that macro- economic uncertainty is an important determinant net interest margin; under the condition of con- trolling other relevant variables, economic uncertainty has significant positive impact on net inter- est margin, while the development of internet finance has negative impact on it. The conclusions provide empirical support for the improvement of financial supervisions and monetary policies.