中文摘要：

准确把握P2P网贷市场的演化规律,对其发展至关重要。采用系统动力学方法,综合考虑市场内外因素,建立P2P网贷市场演化模型并对P2P市场在2014年7月至2017年4月间的演化情况进行仿真。研究表明：未来的P2P网贷余额数量将逐步攀升,但受到竞争压力与监管力度变化的影响,其平台数量会不断减少,出现强者愈强的局面;网贷市场对政府监管力度的敏感程度较高,受政策的影响程度较大;提高P2P网贷市场的征信能力是增强其活力的重要途径。

英文摘要：

;For the development of the peer-to-peer （P2P） lending market, it is vital to accurately grasp its evolution. With a comprehensive consideration of the internal and external factors of the market, this paper established a model, and made simulation of the market from 2014 July to April 2017. Research indicates that although the number of P2P loan balance will gradually rise in the future, the number of P2P lending platform will reduce gradually by the influences of the pressure of competition and the force of su-pervision, which leads to the phenomenon of the law of the jungle. Besides, the P2P lending market is sen-sitive to government supervision. It,s therefore suggested to enhance the credit of P2P lending market which should be a significant approach to improve the vitality of the market.