中文摘要：

采用随机波动的时变参数结构向量自回归模型（SV_TVP—SVAR），分别考察M1、M2、银行间7天同业拆借利率、贷款、社会融资规模与消费者价格指数、宏观经济景气一致指数之间的关系。发现货币政策传导效应具有非常显著的时变特征，没有一个变量适合在所有时期作为货币政策中间目标；就价格水平而言，从2009年起，M1是一个最优的货币政策中间目标；而就宏观经济而言，从2010年起，社会融资规模是一个最优的货币政策中间目标。货币政策调控时不能仅仅参考某一个变量作为中间目标。

英文摘要：

We employ a SV-TVP-SVAR model to examine the relationships between M1, M2, Shibor-lw, loan, all-system financing aggregate and CPI, macroeconomic coincident index respectively. We argue that monetary policy transmission has great time-varying effects and none of the variables mentioned above is a good intermediate target for all the time, M1 is an optimal target from 2009 in terms of price level and all-system financing aggregate is an optimal one from 2010 in terms of macro-economy. The People＇s Bank of China maybe takes multi-intermediate targets.