为研究近30a中国内陆温度场的差异性,利用1981—2012年覆盖全国的662个国家基准气候站和基本气象站地面年平均气温的气象数据,在质量控制、温度带划分的基础上,进行了反距离加权插值分析、等值线序列分析、地形分析、变异函数分析,获得1981-2012年中国内陆温度变化在时间尺度和空间尺度上的演化规律。研究表明:(1)近32a中国内陆年平均气温呈上升趋势,温度变化速率为(0.042±0.006)℃/a;(2)近32a中国5大温度带范围均有不同程度的摄动,热/亚热带分界线近32a向北推移了0.034°N,亚热/暖温带分界线西段有向西南迁移的趋势,东段在南北方向摆动剧烈,暖温/中温带分界线有向西北迁移的趋势,中温/寒温带分界线有向东北、西北发生迁移的趋势;(3)中国内陆近32a平均温度变异强度北方大于南方,在时间序列上变异系数呈“强.弱.强”变化趋势,北方、西北和青藏高原局部地区为强变异区;(4)中国内陆温度与高程呈负相关关系,去除其他因素,中国内陆温度-高程变化速率约为-0.003℃/m,其变化规律较符合指数函数特征;(5)未来中国内陆温度仍呈增温趋势,小幅回落仅是局地的周期性调整。
In order to study the difference of the temperature field in Chinese mainland in recent 30 years,the analyses of inverse distance weight interpolation, sequence of the temperature isoline,terrain and variogram are implemented, based on quality control and division of temperature zone and by using the meteorological data of annual mean temperature of 662 national standard climatic station covering the whole country, the evolution process of Chinese inland temperature change in the time and spatial scale from 1981 to 2012 is obtained. The result shows that: (1) the annual mean temperature in Chinese inland shows an increasing trend and thechange rate of temperature is (0. 042 ± 0. 006 ) ℃/a during 32 years ; (2) during 32 years the ranges of five temperature zones in China have perturbation of different longitude and latitude. The dividing line between tropical and subtropical zone moves northward by 0. 034 degrees along latitudes. The dividing line in west sec- tion between warm temperature zone and subtropical zone has a migration trend to southwestward and swings violently in south-north direction in east section. The dividing line between warm temperature zone and mid temperature zone has a migration trend to northwestward. The dividing line between mid warm temperature zone and cold temperature zone has a migration trend to northwestward and northeastward ; (3) the variability of an- nual mean temperature in Chinese inland during 32 years in north is bigger than that in south. The variation co- efficient in time series shows intense-lght-intense tendency. There are strong variant regions in northern, south- western and parts of Tibetan Plateau;(4)a negative correlation is existed between temperature in Chinese in- land and elevation. The change rate of temperature in Chinese inland and elevation is about 0. 003 ℃lm, which is consistency with the characteristic of exponential function ; (5) Chinese inland temperature still shows an in- creasing trend in the future,the current s|