中文摘要：

基于轨迹特征根在大扰动后系统分析中的适用性，尝试用轨迹特征根方法来分析和预测系统的暂态稳定性。通过大扰动后逐个断面的泰勒展开，将原非线性系统由一族带扰动项的线性系统来近似。通过线性系统的稳定性理论及电力系统物理特征，给出电力系统暂态失稳判据，进而基于该判据，设计暂态稳定在线预测算法。最后，在新英格兰系统和国内实际电网上的算例测试，表明了暂态失稳判据和在线预测算法的准确性和适用性。

英文摘要：

Based on the feasibility of applying trajectory eigenvalues analysis for large disturbances, the paper tries to analyze and predict the transient stability of a power system. Along with the system trajectory after faults being cleared, the Taylor expansion model is established. Then the system is approximated into a large number of linear systems with disturbance quantity. Based on stability theory of linear systems and the characteristics of power system instability, the criterion of power system transient instability is provided. The on-line transient stability prediction algorithm is proposed based on the criterion of losing stability. Case studies of New England system and an actual power grid in China are provided to demonstrate the proposed criterion and algorithm, and the results show that the proposed methods are efficient.