中文摘要：

应急预警是城市配电网应急管理所必备的重要基本功能,其核心工作是评估各种突发事件对电网的威胁程度,进而评定相关预警级别并发布预警信息。文中研究并提出了一种城市配电网应急预警方法,通过分析各类突发事件引发的设备停运概率,计算出突发事件下配电网停电风险,并以此为判据确定突发事件预警级别。该方法考虑了应急调度措施的作用,所构建的停电风险指标具有明确清晰的物理意义,可用于优化设计应急预防和处置方案。以IEEE标准系统为算例说明了所提出的方法的工作流程和实用性。

英文摘要：

Early warning is an important function of the emergency response system for the urban power grids.It evaluates the risks of disaster events and releases the warning information accordingly.In this work,a novel method for the early warning is proposed.The method is based on the power failure risk analysis of the distribution system.By setting up the probability model of the devices＇outages,the power failure risks can be evaluated for the partial or global urban power grid.These risks are used to define the corresponding warning levels of the disaster events.Given that the emergency controls are considered,the power failure risks obtained are also helpful for optimizing the prevention plans against the impacts on system security and reliability from disasters.A test case of the standard IEEE system is presented to illustrate the capability and feasibility of the proposed early warning method.