中文摘要：

针对以约束为中心的复杂系统仿真中缺乏有效的不确定性信息描述方法,导致仿真中不确定性信息不能充分利用的问题,借鉴和采纳云模型的相关理论和方法,研究了以约束为中心基于云模型的复杂系统定性建模方法。首先提出了仿真中基于云模型的不确定信息表示方法、基于云模型和群体专家决策的量空间构建方法;然后给出了基于云模型的系统定性约束方程的构建方法;最后将提出的建模方法应用于一个敏捷供应链的建模实例。结果表明提出的建模方法具有客观表达不确定信息、将定性与定量信息在仿真中相互融合的优点。

英文摘要：

The absence of effective depictive expression of uncertain information causes the insufficient usageof uncertain information.The qualitative modeling method of complex system based on QSIM and studied cloud model according to the theory and method of cloud model.Firstly this paper gave the expression of uncertain information based on cloud model.It created the value space of variable by the cloud model and group experts.Then constructed construction of system qualitative constrain function based on cloud model.Lastly applied the modeling method to the case of modeling in the agile supply chain management.The proposed method has the merit of objective expression the uncertain information,and the fusion of qualitative and quantitative information can be used in complex system simulation.