中文摘要：

提出了一种基于蒙特卡罗模拟的利用交通流参数实现交通状态辨识的方法.采用FANNY算法实现了四种交通状态的聚类分析;利用蒙特卡罗模拟方法建立了SVC交通状态辨识模型;分别构建了固定窗口模型和滑动窗口模型对交通状态进行辨识并综合评价.分析结果表明：该方法能够对实时交通流参数进行准确辨识,尤其是构建的滑动窗口模型,对交通状态辨识平均精度、召回率和F度量分别为97.98%、94.64%和96.21%.本方法可为分析高速公路交通状态演化规律和发展趋势,建立预测预警、应急处置和信息发布等应急运行机制提供科学方法和数据支撑.

英文摘要：

A method of using traffic flow parameters is proposed for traffic status identification based on Monte Carlo simulation. Clustering analysis of four kinds traffic status is realized by applying FANNY algorithm, and SVC traffic status identification model is established using Monte Carlo simulation method. Fixed window model and sliding window model are built respectively to identify and conduct comprehensive evaluation on traffic status. Results indicate that the method can achieve accurate identification of real-time traffic flow parameters, especially with sliding window model, of which average identification accuracy, recall and F-measure are 97.98%, 94.64% and 96.21% respectively. It provides scientific methods and data support for analyzing evolution regularity and development trend of traffic status, as well as establishing emergency operation mechanism such as prediction and forewarning, emergency disposal and information release.