中文摘要：

本文结合陕西省内南水北调工程,针对规划水平年2020年和2030年,从仅有当地供水系统供水和南水北调供水系统供水两个方面,以缺水率和缺水指数为评估指标进行研究。对南水北调供水系统,分别考虑建立当仅有三河口水库单独供水、黄金峡水库和三河口水库联合供水两种方案,当采用黄金峡水库和三河口水库联合供水时,以南水北调可调水量限制条件分情景一：可调水量10亿m3;情景二：可调水量15.5亿m3进行探讨。研究结果表明：当仅有当地供水系统供水时,受水区内水资源供需紧张;当以南水北调供水系统仅考虑三河口水库供水时,受水区内缺水状况依然存在,当以可调水量10亿m3黄金峡水库和三河口水库联合供水时,年缺水指数由2020年的3.17增加到2030年的8.18,水资源供需状况依然紧张,以可调水量15.5亿m3供水时年缺水指数由2020年的0.82增加到2030年的3.31,较情景一年缺水指数已有改善。可见,以可调水量15.5亿m3供水时,2020年基本可以满足需水要求,但2030年后供需矛盾仍然突出,必须安排新的水源以满足后期增加的水资源需求。

英文摘要：

Aggravation of the contradiction between water supply and demand has seriously restricted rapid development of social and economic development in Shaanxi Province. With implementation of the South-to-North Water Transfer （Han-to-Wei River transfer） Project in Shaanxi Province, the imbalance between supply and demand of the water resource system would continue to be alleviated. This paper discusses two water supply scenarios within the framework of the provincial South-to-North Water Transfer Project. One is under the condition of water supply only by the Sanhekou Reservoir. The other is under the condition of water supply jointly by the Huangjinxia Reservoir and the Sanhekou Reservoir, in which the water supply scheme is constrained by the transferable water amount from the South-to-North Water Transfer of 10 billion m3 and 15.5 billion m3, respectively. Historic runoff observations from 1954 to 2005 were used in the water supply simulation. Then water supply situations of the benefited areas were elaborated. Results indicated that when supplied solely by the local water supply system, the average deficit rate in the year 2020 would reach 64%, and the average deficit rate in the year 2030 would be 68%. The annual shortage index would be increased accompanied by increasingly serious water imbalance between supply and demand of the benefited areas. When supplied solely by the Sanhekou Reservoir in the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, the average deficit rate in 2020 was found to be 24%, the maximum deficit rate would reach 36%, and the average deficit rate in the 2030 would be 26%. The maximum deficit rate would be 41%. Therefore, the water shortage of the benefited areas would still occur. When supplied jointly by the Sanhekou and Huangjinxia reservoirs with the transferable water amount of 10 billion m3, the average deficit rate would increase from 7% in 2020 to 16% in 2030, the annual shortage index would increase from 3.17 in 2020 to 8.18 in 2030, and the average water shortage would increase from 204