为考察经济增长与城市建设用地之间的关系,本文采用计量经济分析方法对中国1981年-2007年的两者关系进行了检验。研究结果表明:①经济增长与城市建设用地之间存在协整关系,即长期均衡关系,但短期内会偏离长期均衡,城市建设用地长期对短期偏离均衡的调整力度为44.9%,而经济增长偏离长期均衡时,仅以9.4%力度被调整到均衡状态;②经济增长是城市建设用地面积变化的Grange原因,而反向关系得不到实证支持;③经济增长带来的冲击能够解释城市建设用地面积变化的50%以上,而城市建设用地的变化对经济增长的解释水平仅仅保持在10%左右。城市政府应该改变过去城市发展"摊大饼"的模式,提高现有土地的利用效率,积极促进产业结构调整,发展节地型产业,建设资源节约型社会。
Expansion of urban construction land is considered a general trend during the processes of social and economic development.To that end,properly dealing with the relationship between economic development and construction land expansion plays a key role in land resource management.To explore the relationship between economic growth and urban construction land,some econometric methods,such as the co-integration,Grange causality tests,IRF,and variance decomposition,were used to analyze relevant data of China during the period 1981-2007.Results showed that there existed a long-term stable equilibrium between urban construction land area and economic growth.The elasticity of urban construction land to economic growth was estimated to be 0.695,corresponding to a 6.95%change in the area of urban construction land being in response to a 10%change in economic growth.The elasticity of economic growth to urban construction land was estimated to be 1.404,which meant that economic growth would increase by 14.04%when the area of urban construction land increased by 10%.From the error correction model,economic growth and urban construction land caused a reverse revision effect on stable equilibrium relations.In addition,there is a more significant adjustment on the short-term fluctuation.Furthermore,more deviations of urban construction land would be adjusted in order to achieve equilibrium.Grange causality test showed that economic growth was the Grange cause of urban construction land,but the opposite grange causality couldn’t be proved by the empirical study.The single-direction causality indicated that economic growth plays a significant and positive role in urban construction land expansion.From the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition,the interaction between economic growth and urban construction land exhibited certain differences.It was also found that for a standard deviation impact of urban construction land,economic growth only took a weak response,whereas the response became very strong when economic