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中国1981年-2007年经济增长与城市建设用地关系分析
  • ISSN号:1007-7588
  • 期刊名称:《资源科学》
  • 时间:0
  • 分类:F124[经济管理—世界经济]
  • 作者机构:[1]华中农业大学土地管理学院,武汉430070
  • 相关基金:国家自然科学基金项目:“农地城市流转中不同利益集团福利变化测度与福利均衡研究”(编号:70773047); 国土资源部项目:“武汉、长株潭两型社会试验区土地政策研究”
中文摘要:

为考察经济增长与城市建设用地之间的关系,本文采用计量经济分析方法对中国1981年-2007年的两者关系进行了检验。研究结果表明:①经济增长与城市建设用地之间存在协整关系,即长期均衡关系,但短期内会偏离长期均衡,城市建设用地长期对短期偏离均衡的调整力度为44.9%,而经济增长偏离长期均衡时,仅以9.4%力度被调整到均衡状态;②经济增长是城市建设用地面积变化的Grange原因,而反向关系得不到实证支持;③经济增长带来的冲击能够解释城市建设用地面积变化的50%以上,而城市建设用地的变化对经济增长的解释水平仅仅保持在10%左右。城市政府应该改变过去城市发展"摊大饼"的模式,提高现有土地的利用效率,积极促进产业结构调整,发展节地型产业,建设资源节约型社会。

英文摘要:

Expansion of urban construction land is considered a general trend during the processes of social and economic development.To that end,properly dealing with the relationship between economic development and construction land expansion plays a key role in land resource management.To explore the relationship between economic growth and urban construction land,some econometric methods,such as the co-integration,Grange causality tests,IRF,and variance decomposition,were used to analyze relevant data of China during the period 1981-2007.Results showed that there existed a long-term stable equilibrium between urban construction land area and economic growth.The elasticity of urban construction land to economic growth was estimated to be 0.695,corresponding to a 6.95%change in the area of urban construction land being in response to a 10%change in economic growth.The elasticity of economic growth to urban construction land was estimated to be 1.404,which meant that economic growth would increase by 14.04%when the area of urban construction land increased by 10%.From the error correction model,economic growth and urban construction land caused a reverse revision effect on stable equilibrium relations.In addition,there is a more significant adjustment on the short-term fluctuation.Furthermore,more deviations of urban construction land would be adjusted in order to achieve equilibrium.Grange causality test showed that economic growth was the Grange cause of urban construction land,but the opposite grange causality couldn’t be proved by the empirical study.The single-direction causality indicated that economic growth plays a significant and positive role in urban construction land expansion.From the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition,the interaction between economic growth and urban construction land exhibited certain differences.It was also found that for a standard deviation impact of urban construction land,economic growth only took a weak response,whereas the response became very strong when economic

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期刊信息
  • 《资源科学》
  • 中国科技核心期刊
  • 主管单位:中国科学院
  • 主办单位:中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
  • 主编:成升魁
  • 地址:北京安定门外大屯路甲11号
  • 邮编:100101
  • 邮箱:zykx@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 电话:010-64889446
  • 国际标准刊号:ISSN:1007-7588
  • 国内统一刊号:ISSN:11-3868/N
  • 邮发代号:82-4
  • 获奖情况:
  • 国内外数据库收录:
  • 日本日本科学技术振兴机构数据库,中国中国人文社科核心期刊,中国中国科技核心期刊,中国北大核心期刊(2004版),中国北大核心期刊(2008版),中国北大核心期刊(2011版),中国北大核心期刊(2014版),中国北大核心期刊(2000版)
  • 被引量:42316