中文摘要：

针对棉花的供给反应在长短期随价格有所不同的特征,以新疆为例,通过运用Nerlove模型对新疆1978-2009年棉花产量和棉花生产价格的年度数据进行了实证分析。结果发现,棉花的短期供给弹性小于1,表现为不具有弹性;棉花的长期供给弹性大于1,表现为具有弹性。从棉花这种供给反应的特点出发,分析了造成这种状况的原因,提出要保障棉花政策的持续性和稳定性,加快技术投入推广和提高技术转化率,加大对生产者的教育培训和积极发展棉花期货交易的政策建议。

英文摘要：

In view of the characteristics that supply response of cotton varies with price response in the short and long term, this paper took Xinjiang as an example and conducted an empirical analysis of the annual data of cotton output and cotton production prices from 1978 to 2009 by using Nerlove model. The results showed that when short- term supply elasticity of cotton is less than 1, it shows no flexibility ; when long-term supply elasticity of cotton is greater than 1 ,it shows flexibility. Based on the above,this paper analysed the reasons for this situation and proposed some policies and suggestions as ensuring continuity and stability of cotton policies, speeding up technological input and extension and enhancing the rate of technological transfer, and finally increasing education and training of cotton producers and actively developing cotton futures business.