中文摘要：

在经典模型基础上,考虑到保险公司退保事件的发生,假定保费收取、个体退保额以及理赔额均为相互独立的随机变量,提出并讨论含退保因素并且保单到达过程、退保过程以及理赔过程发生均为复合二项过程,建立一种符合实际运营的风险分析模型,通过定义调节系数及应用累进均值法则和Chebychev不等式对保险公司风险模型进行研究,得出模型的破产概率表达式及Lundberg不等式.

英文摘要：

According to the actual situation,we assume that the arrival process of claim,insurance policy and refunding are independent random variables.A practical risk model with a refunding process is introduced,and the arrival of the term policies,the occurrences of claim and refunding are compound binominal processes.By defining the adjustment coefficient and applying a progressive average method and Chebychev inequality,the formula of ultimate ruin probability is proved simply,and a Lundberg inequality is derived.