中文摘要：

在分析路基沉降规律和Richards曲线特征的基础上,针对常用的Gompertz、Von Bertalanffy和Logistic3种沉降预测模型的不足,基于Richards曲线的数学特征,提出将Richards模型应用于路基的沉降预测。以常用的Gompertz、VonBertalanffy和Logistic3种沉降预测模型和Richards模型进行了对比分析;并基于重复二元回归法提出了适用于路基沉降预测的四参数Richards模型。结果表明,Logistic模型、Gompertz模型和Von Bertalanffy模型为Richards模型的特例,由工程实例的预测分析证明了该模型能更好地适应实际情况的变化,适用范围更广,且预测精度更高。

英文摘要：

Aiming at the limitation of the logistic model, Gompertz model and Von Bertalanffy model which in common use, based on the analysis of the settlement rules of soft clay roadbed and the mathematical character of Riehards model, it was put forward that Riehards model can be used to predict soft clay roadbed settlement. Comparison of logistic model, Gompertz model and Von Bertalanffy model with Riehards model was carried out. A four-parameter Richards model which offers an effective and applieable way for forecasting settlement in soft clay roadbed was established based on repeat duality regression. The result indicates that the famous logistic model, Gompertz model and Von Bertalanffy model are special forms of Riehards model. An example of prediction shows that the Riehards model has great practical value in preventing roadbed sink with high prediction precision for guaranteeing the road behavior in practice.